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Abstract Predicting if, when, and how populations can adapt to climate change constitutes one of the greatest challenges in science today. Here, we build from contributions to the special issue on evolutionary adaptation to climate change, a survey of its authors, and recent literature to explore the limits and opportunities for predicting adaptive responses to climate change. We outline what might be predictable now, in the future, and perhaps never even with our best efforts. More accurate predictions are expected for traits characterized by a well-understood mapping between genotypes and phenotypes and traits experiencing strong, direct selection due to climate change. A meta-analysis revealed an overall moderate trait heritability and evolvability in studies performed under future climate conditions but indicated no significant change between current and future climate conditions, suggesting neither more nor less genetic variation for adapting to future climates. Predicting population persistence and evolutionary rescue remains uncertain, especially for the many species without sufficient ecological data. Still, when polled, authors contributing to this special issue were relatively optimistic about our ability to predict future evolutionary responses to climate change. Predictions will improve as we expand efforts to understand diverse organisms, their ecology, and their adaptive potential. Advancements in functional genomic resources, especially their extension to non-model species and the union of evolutionary experiments and “omics,” should also enhance predictions. Although predicting evolutionary responses to climate change remains challenging, even small advances will reduce the substantial uncertainties surrounding future evolutionary responses to climate change. 

Aging is the price to pay for acquiring and processing energy through cellular activity and life history productivity. Climate warming can exacerbate the inherent pace of aging, as illustrated by a faster erosion of protective telomere DNA sequences. This biomarker integrates individual pace of life and parental effects through the germline, but whether intra- and intergenerational telomere dynamics underlies population trends remains an open question. Here, we investigated the covariation between life history, telomere length (TL), and extinction risk among three age classes in a cold-adapted ectotherm ( Zootoca vivipara ) facing warming-induced extirpations in its distribution limits. TL followed the same threshold relationships with population extinction risk at birth, maturity, and adulthood, suggesting intergenerational accumulation of accelerated aging rate in declining populations. In dwindling populations, most neonates inherited already short telomeres, suggesting they were born physiologically old and unlikely to reach recruitment. At adulthood, TL further explained females’ reproductive performance, switching from an index of individual quality in stable populations to a biomarker of reproductive costs in those close to extirpation. We compiled these results to propose the aging loop hypothesis and conceptualize how climate-driven telomere shortening in ectotherms may accumulate across generations and generate tipping points before local extirpation. 

ABSTRACT Nocturnal temperatures are increasing at a pace exceeding diurnal temperatures in most parts of the world. The role of warmer nocturnal temperatures in animal ecology has received scant attention and most studies focus on diurnal or daily descriptors of thermal environments' temporal trends. Yet, available evidence from plant and insect studies suggests that organisms can exhibit contrasting physiological responses to diurnal and nocturnal warming. Limiting studies to diurnal trends can thus result in incomplete and misleading interpretations of the ability of species to cope with global warming. Although they are expected to be impacted by warmer nocturnal temperatures, insufficient data are available regarding the night‐time ecology of vertebrate ectotherms. Here, we illustrate the complex effects of nocturnal warming on squamate reptiles, a keystone group of vertebrate ectotherms. Our review includes discussion of diurnal and nocturnal ectotherms, but we mainly focus on diurnal species for which nocturnal warming affects a period dedicated to physiological recovery, and thus may perturb activity patterns and energy balance. We first summarise the physical consequences of nocturnal warming on habitats used by squamate reptiles. Second, we describe how such changes can alter the energy balance of diurnal species. We illustrate this with empirical data from the asp viper (Vipera aspis) and common wall lizard (Podarcis muralis), two diurnal species found throughout western Europe. Third, we make use of a mechanistic approach based on an energy‐balance model to draw general conclusions about the effects of nocturnal temperatures. Fourth, we examine how warmer nights may affect squamates over their lifetime, with potential consequences on individual fitness and population dynamics. We review quantitative evidence for such lifetime effects using recent data derived from a range of studies on the European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara). Finally, we consider the broader eco‐evolutionary ramifications of nocturnal warming and highlight several research questions that require future attention. Our work emphasises the importance of considering the joint influence of diurnal and nocturnal warming on the responses of vertebrate ectotherms to climate warming.